I have already introduced the topic with that post. But I think that through all my perusing, musing and meditation, I have found some more factors to why the SNS trend can actually be seen as a bubble ready to burst. Here:

Wrong values and unqualified ROI

From the top of my skull, that's the very first thing coming in, and the topic about which I am the most vehement.

Wrong values because now everything seems to be quantified by either the amount of followers, likes, or facebook friends you get.
The numbers have to be huge, since the bet is  "if you are visible to many, some might buy"; unfortunately I barely believe in that approach, and I'm probably not the only one.
It was probably true a couple of years ago, but now so many have jumped in the bandwagon it derails at every turn, being visible to many means taking part in an infomercial flood invading too many time lines.

Now, I see a huge bunch of consultants and experts wanting to jump at my throat, screaming that the results are quantifiable if you know where to start.
Indeed they are. We hear from the revenue generated from online campaigns. Generated by the ads agencies.
The ROI of the actual advertisers though, is unknown.
I'm not talking about isolated cases, I'm talking about a global survey and real figures; what I want to read is " n% of of the companies advertising on Twitter experienced a ROI of n% during the last 6 month"

Too much snake oil

I'm not saying that every SNS consultant is a fake, but many are still pretty inexperienced, or plain useless.
As a result, many companies are lured into thinking that:

- They can sell online without previous authority (not everyone is called Starbucks)
- They can sell absolutely everything online ( PR is different from sales)
- Having lots of followers/likes/friends is a proof of success (you can buy followers in some forums)

Then, confusing talks about the results come into the game, and mess it up a little more. Take this article for instance.

What do they mean by "countless donations",  "increased their traffic by 300%" or "sales bump of 20%" ?
If I have 1 visitor, having 3 by the next day will be a 300% increase.  Be specific!

What kind of trust do you want to build with these stats? Seriously?
What is economy based on, by the way? Oh yeah, trust.

The balance is fragile

Platforms, users, advertisers and third parties are tied in a very tight way.
The platform depends on the users, drives its traffic through third parties, and exposes it to the advertisers.

If the platform fails, everything is muted
If the users get bored, everybody loses interest in the platform (no content generated)
It third parties are not competitive enough, users will get bored (but then again, what if the platform fails them?)
If the advertisers stop advertising, the platform can't maintain itself (and in the other hand if the "lesser" and noisy ads smother the users, they will get bored)

The not so funny fact being that Facebook and Twitter are in a position of quasi monopole. There is nowhere else to go right now.
Does it mean that investors and companies will keep on pumping in money and effort until someone panics? I hope not.

The topic is being discussed

As I said earlier, economy is based on trust.
You'll always find a base of skeptics being grumpy about mostly every topic you can imagine, that's given. But in the middle of the current SNS fever, articles about disappointments and doubt about the real value of the system (like this one) are becoming more common, and that's not really a good sign.

What can we do so it doesn't burst?

What I have in mind is pretty simple. Diversify, leave more space to the competition, stop advertising stuff no one care about, and start treating social media like, yes, media and not like some universal solution to all advertising problems.
The internet is not limited to Twitter and Facebook, it is a mine of innovation, it's time to remember it and get back to making stuff.

Burstingly yours.
Danny.

Your Twitter timeline is a bloody mess? You've created lists but it doesn't matter?
The probability is that you are both using Twitter to look for information to share and to keep in touch with some friends.
The probability is, now your timeline is gorged with non-sequitur quotes and repeated bad marketing attempts, that you failed.
Like I did.

So what now? It's time to unfollow everybody, yessir, and re-follow the Tweeps you really bear in your little heart.

I have some easy steps for you:

1. Tell everyone you are cleaning up and starting from zero. You don't hate them, you just need to get rid of all the bots, you were a victim of your own eagerness to make friends and followed too many accounts, people forced you at gunpoint, you're saving the trees...
2. Do that a day or two before you actually press the big red nuke button, some people don't tweet everyday and might be surprised if it happens too fast. Who wouldn't?
   
3. Make a new list with people you will re-follow. Unfollowing them will not delete them from the list. A good way to do so is to check your mentions and private messages, it will give you a good hint about who dialogs with you the most.
4. Once you're sure you really, really want to do it, go to http://www.unfollowall.com/
5. Enter your ID, Password, validate and check your account.
   
6. If your 'following' counter is not showing zero yet, go back to Unfollowall.com and repeat/refres.
7. Time to re-follow everybody in that new list you created.
8. As a couple of extra steps I'd recommend to create some special lists such as "Info only" and "real people" or "nice dialog"  and keep these strictly separated. If you are using a tool such as hootsuite or tweetdeck, it's pricelessly handy.

Notice that you will inevitably experience a drop in your followers, since all the accounts using automated mutual follow will also unfollow you. But then again, you're in there for a reason that doesn't include pleasing the bots. Be tough!

Wishing you a happy reboot!

Now, we're seriously stepping in a phase where the mobile broadband integration has become a sine qua non requirement, and we're hearing about the war between Google and Apple to milk the biggest jug out of mobile customers. But I wonder... is the traditional ad system worth it when going mobile or is there an alternative?
Location based advertising and partnerships are the sanest answer coming to my mind, here is why:

Ads in a matchbox?

In all my browsing experience, the only time I have clicked on ads were accidental. But it never turned out to be a real problem, tabbed navigation, mouse, big screen... all these help when you get tricked into visiting that awesome money-making-twitting-towel's website.
Now, on a mobile, that's pretty different, the screen is small, the fonts are small, and as long as I admire the efforts put into mobile web browsers I can't really say it's the best way to enjoy the web...

What about ROI?

When you try googling anything about the topic, you end up with a huge amount of articles describing how Facebook and Google are making money out selling ads and even more money out of selling even more ads for mobile. What about the return on investment of those who actually buy the ad space?
Please send me a link, I have yet to find anything that's realistic about advertiser's ROI.

Ads through apps?

That's another thing. I've seen ads embedded in apps I use for my mobile. I will never click on them simply because doing so would open my browser. I don't need more lag than I already have, thank you very much, and then again, the small screen would make it as comfortable as gnawing on my toes.
I won't worry about it too much though, Twitter has announced they wouldn't allow ads from their third party apps anymore. Nice for them to secure their own channel (tweetup), but not so  nice for many a developer's business plan.

Back to the real world, sns advertisers could choke on the red pill.

What seems to be profitable, then? Coupons. Location based advertisement.
Where does it bring us back to? Traditional advertising.
Will it work? Yes, Yes and YES.

Why?

1) It brings direct rewards to the consumer
2) It's directly relevant to the user
3) It's less intrusive

Am I the only one to think that? No.

Apple did forbid developers to implement location based ads, they want to keep the candies for themselves.
Google battled and won over location based ads.
Yahoo! is so desperate to enter the battle it offered to buy foursquare, and just bought Koprol.

You've seen it, we've seen it, cyber-bullying is around the corner.
Facebook and Twitter, as any other communication platforms, are as many ways to find yourself the lucky owner of an official stalker.
While it's worthy of all your concern as parents or siblings, it's sadly not the only thing you should worry about.
Here are some of the negative aspects of the Internet and how to prevent your little ones from bumping into them.

What is seen cannot be unseen.

The most disturbing event I've had to face so far is friend being tagged in a photo depicting a beheaded corpse.
These pictures are unfortunately very common, and very easy to find.
What to do then?

• Set up search filters
  They are available for Google, Yahoo and Bing

• Be informed. 
  4chan (really [nNumber]Chan), Encyclopedia Dramatica and a load of Shock Sites are already sources of major freak out for many grown ups, you don't wanna know what they can do to a 10 years-old.

• Don't be fooled
  Even Wikipedia has some pretty graphic explanations about sex-related topics (that's the fun side, don't go near the dermatology section).
  

But you can monitor all you want, you know kids are pretty smart, they'll do anything to access the kind of pictures/videos that will make them stop believing in Santa. So talk to them, be open and be with them when they access the web.

This crazy little thing called P2P

I'll be brief: Either do it yourself, or ban it. You know this pre-release of the latest blockbuster you just downloaded? You know you feel stupid when you discover that, really, it's a porn flick. Your little one will come back with a lot of question about Iron Man if you don't take care.

We're all friends, right?

Well, no. Remember, Internet was created by the people, for the people. It's been created by geeks, who are known to have, sometimes, a pretty sick humor (I should know). And even if yes, it's for the people, as far as I know it still includes the percentage that's nuts enough to come out with the 47 original rules of the internet. I invite you to read it with your sarcasm detector fully charged, it's pretty informative.

So now you know what kind of crackpot you can stumble upon, and since you already know we're only six levels away from pretty much anybody on this planet, you'll find that the following advices make sense.

• No chatroulette. Ever.
  Nuf' said.

• On social networking sites, only let your kids befriend people they (you) already know in real life.
  Taking a look at their profiles (of course you know their password yes?)

• Never let them meet face to face someone they met online.
  Just in case they did meet someone online

• Their data are theirs.
  So, no darling, you can't give the nice man/website your phone number.
  The same goes for pictures and videos.

• Anonymous Coward is a Coward
  If your little one gets unfriendly messages from an unknown persona, don't let her take it seriously, anonymity combined to aggressiveness is just plain cowardice. Let them laugh at the scaredy haters.

• Block the undesirable.
  Facebook, Twitter, IM, Chatrooms, Forums... they all have at least a blacklist feature, don't hesitate to use it. I cant explain step by step here, but tutorials are widely available through a simple Google search

• Social is not just Facebook and Twitter.
  Forums and chat rooms are still active, and if they are not under the spotlight right now, you still should be careful about their content, especially the chatrooms.

• Privacy is the new black. Learn and teach!
  I've written a piece about it some weeks ago, and you can scour the web for many other useful tips. Being informed yourself is the best way to teach online safety to the apple of your eyes.
  

Hoping it's been useful. And remember, the more you know about the web, the safest your kids are. Be open, talk and experience, that's the ultimate key!

This post is an answer to Robert Scobles's post, where he wishes privacy to be dead for good, again, and Facebook to turn full disclosed.

Robert, if you allow me...

First of all, I do think we have something in common. I am popular among my offline friends for the same reason you are famous online: our inflated ego. No that's not a bad thing. But here, in this very case, I think you're pushing it too far.

We're not all celebrities

I might be a star before my friends and a demigod before my girlfriend, there are some things I like to keep for them and them only: the silly faces, the naked pole dancing, some of my pretty disturbing thoughts about gastronomy and babies...
Facebook would go all open, it would be even better for you, more visibility, better way to let your opinions known.
Then again, we are not all celebrities.

We're not all techies/internet marketers

You and I, Robert, have something to say. Me on a much smaller scale (but I'll get you one day don't worry), but still. We know how to crawl for information, we know what to say and when to open our mouth, and before all, we want it to be heard.
That's not the case of my auntie. I wouldn't want people to know my auntie is 75 years old and still single....oops?

Not everybody knows how to use Facebook.

Apparently, tutorial about Facebook are highly demanded. Nearly 10 millions results on Google with "how to facebook".
You have to realize that 400.000.000 people have various levels of knowledge about the site and its features.
The proof? Well, that article, which dates from last April, states that more and more people are bullied online.
They wouldn't if they knew how to use the site, right?

Apparently users are idiots

Well, at least that what I can deduce from the privacy settings policy.
It switched from "It's safe, it's on Facebook" to "OMG it's on Facebook HOW DO I REMOVE IT?" through multiple layouts and rules changes, and yes, obfuscated settings.
If we compare the skyrocketing concern about privacy on Facebook and the plethora of tutorials to the introductory sentence
"It should be easy to find and connect with friends. Your privacy settings should be simple and easy to understand." found on the site's privacy guide, we can only be drawn to one conclusion : users are idiots.
Or Facebook thinks so.
Anyway, idiots tend to publish things they regret later. No?

Last but not least: It's people's right...why, it's their life after all....

That the easiest argument of all, the one that makes the most sense.
Controlling our lives and deciding what we should expose and to whom is our right.
It should be easy. It should not be an option.

Bonus: your naked picture (from flickr), it's probably everywhere. Mine coming soon.

Here I am going to digress from my usual ranting about everything technology. Or maybe not, you chose.
Though since I'd like to write something different from "Google bought something, again" and "Oh God, Facebook/Nokia/The Universe sucks" and the last week in news has been pretty flat, I'll just free-opine.

See, there are things I'm aware of right now, such as the iPad being pretty popular and the tablets coming right our way, I'm sensing a disturbance in the Force.
I had a vision.

A vision were, lead by Apple, tech gadgets are going to behave more and more like home appliances. I don't say it's bad, at least not for everybody, read further.
I hear here and there that games are now being streamed from the cloud, I realize that connecting computers to a network is becoming as easy as pressing a key and, it's been a long while already, expressing yourself online is becoming a standard.

I come from a planet where, not long ago, you had to punch holes in wall and spend a couple of centuries configuring your machines if you wanted a LAN that really does work.
I remember, in junior high, telling a friend "What the heck are you gonna do with a TWO Gb hard disk? That's so big!".
At that time you had to restart your computer every time you install a program.

Yesterday I was in need for a codec. For those who don't know, it's the thingie you need to decode audio or video format. I am the happy borrower of a MacBook Pro, and yes QuickTime sucks (I know, I just ranted), I am thus opting for VLC as my media player. The codec I needed is AMR, which cannot be integrated directly in VLC due to a licensing problem. I know what to do: download the source code and compile with the right options (It means baking it myself from the pre-made dough...effort though, I might pass on that).

Now, this is still somehow possible, but what will happen the day I can't mess with my apps myself? 
Oh, what will happen when my friends will ask for help because her streamed app doesn't work?

"Well, I can do nothing, the problem is in their hands now, no way I can fix it"
-"But I though you were a Geek?"
-"Yes, a computer geek, not a home appliance geek"
- pointing at her tablet "But this IS a computer"
- *facepalm*

Yup, the same way that many broken cars now can't be fixed the way they were because of the very electronics that make them so comfortable, I'm afraid our future "computers" will follow the same path and won't be fixable for the very reason that makes them user-friendly.

I SO should re-learn Linux now, so I still have a couple of years to brag about my Terminal-Fu before surrendering to user-friendliness, while telling the kids to stay out of my cables.

Mashable has posted a short but nonetheless relevant article: Nobody can stop Facebook because nobody understands Facebook.

I commented there, saying that I was closing my personal Facebook account (I keep the diary here). It's both a personal choice and an experiment. My comment received a very interesting answer, I quote:

Just curious, how old are you? I know it's virtually impossible to go without Facebook at my age (20) without losing contact with lots of friends and acquaintances. I have friends all around the world, those who have moved because of school, work, and those who I've met through vacations, traveling, chance encounters as well as my own website.

It's hard to keep track of all these people as well as continue to keep in touch without Facebook. It's just plain silly to say that you can close your account and still be up to date with everyone in this day-and-age.

I don't have time to call or meetup with all my friends and those who I want to keep in contact with everyday.

Facebook is everywhere now. I won't emphasize on it, just go to any tech site and you will see what everybody is taking about now.
I've never liked wearing a uniform, and I am thinking of closing my Facebook account.

But I've been thinking, I still have some friends I want to keep in touch with, and there is still a part of my work I want to share (show off, really). Of course, I don't want any of my friends to feel obliged to subscribe to any service to give their feedback, so I am looking for the most open ways to share my life. You'll see, you can even gain more control on your privacy.

Here are the features Facebook proposes, and what you can do to replace them:

Sharing Photos

If you only need to let your friends know about how wonderful your last drunk pole dancing was, there are two pretty discrete ways:

Posterous, the service I use to blog, can also double as a password protected (that's optional) site to share your pictures, you just need to send them from your email. It allows "anonymous" comments, meaning that you don't have to sign in to leave your feedback.
All you need to subscribe is an email address and 3 minutes of your time.

E-mails are still a very good solution. I sounds old school and much less grandma-friendly, but the truth is my 76 years-old auntie knows how to use it.

If you're more into sharing for the show, Deviant Art is the best solution out there, with plenty of features (enough to make you forget there is a premium version). The community is wonderful and you'll even get advices on what you publish. Only subscribers can comment, this is the exception on the list.

Sharing Links

Delicious, if it's not the ultimate solution, allows you to make your bookmarks public. Your friends can view your delicious bookmarks and even subscribe to your RSS feed.

While you're at it...just send them the link by email or messenger. Copy-paste is not that difficult.

Sharing Thoughts/Status/Chat

Who doesn't have MSN messenger, Y!M, Google Talk or BBM? Seriously?
The question is: Do you want to let the whole world know what you had for breakfast, or just your friends?

Here I'll refer to Posterous again. You can open a blog there and everybody can comment, commenter can see each other's comments, no worries here :)

Dialog online

Facebook inbox or email?  Same use, without the updates from all the groups you joined out of fear of disappointing your contacts. Email has more features too.

Organizing events

A phone call. Seriously. I've never had any difficulty organizing something with a simple phone call or a couple of sms.
If it involves more than 3 people, just send an email.

Discovering content

The whole web.
You don't need "real life" friends to discover content, and joining Twitter, Delicious, Flick, Picasa, YouTube... random googling are as many ways to extend your views on the intertubes.
I've discovered many awesome bands, comics, rss feeds. Funnily enough nothing I have ever been tagged in on Facebook has ever had any value to me.

Finding friends/Keeping in touch

If you're thinking of getting rid of your Facebook account, you probably are the type of user who only added people you really know anyway. Keeping in touch with them is not really a problem then. Phone, emails, blogs, they are available for you to use at will.
You might be asking: What if we lose contact? My answer is: Up to you to foster your relationship with the person you love. Friendships are a lot more than tagging a picture.

The password thingie

With that many services (well, really a blog and an email), you may wonder how you are going to manage all the credentials.
That's actually pretty easy. All browsers have a "remember password" function. Write you credentials somewhere safe (on you home computer, a note on your phone, somewhere only you can access) for the sake of having them remembered and just forget them :)

I might close mine soon, I'll blog about it if it happens. Stay tuned!

I'm peeping at the crystal ball again, and here is a forecast for the month to come.
Of course I could be completely wrong, but at least that's good discussion material.

Look at what the others are doing:

I've written about it already in my chapters about the "Internet Wars" (there is a tag for it, if you want to dig in).
Here is, again, how can today's web giant's "estate" can be summed up:

The three main actors are now Apple, Google and Facebook. While Apple doesn't do social yet (and it would be wise for them to keep it this way unless they want to become the next OVI network) , Google is trying hard.
Google is also, of course, engaged in the "real world" market race with Android, Chrome OS and , in fact, since Chrome Browser.

Facebook is still 100% online, but it might not last long. When you see that Facebook's search is topping Google's, you can think that they got the job pretty much done with, and it's time to think about expending.

Who said Palm? Perfect timing?

Speaking of who goes down and who goes up, Palm is not really having fun lately. They are selling. it's not a news anymore.
Not everybody want them, but someone could be more than interested...guess who?

So, Facebook OS or Facebook Hardware?

Maybe both, actually. Why not? A Facebook OS on a Facebook branded hardware, with GPS and Camera, so you can upload everything about yourself without effort, and with, for Facebook, the greatest control over their API.

That's another chapter about the internet wars, stay tuned, this year is definitely interesting.

I've ranted a lot about this phone, I know.
But now it's cracked and enhanced, I love it again, and I found it the perfect companion.
The fist pic is the free and dirt easy way (provided you don't have to smoke the whole pack before taking your picture)
The second and third pics are the slightly harder way, where the same pack is used for both landscape and portrait mode.

You won't look like a pro,but at least your videos will be stable :)

Go shoot now! :D